After talks collapsed, Washington announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to restrict shipping. Tehran cited mistrust. Markets warned of supply disruption and higher oil prices, raising concerns over global growth and the stability of energy trade routes.

Brent rose above $100 as restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply and underscored a fragile regional truce. With only limited tankers moving, refiners face higher costs, shipping insurance is climbing, and governments are considering releases from strategic reserves.

An Israeli operation in Lebanon, which targeted an armed group, has put a fragile ceasefire at risk. Tehran briefly halted traffic through a key strait, while Washington and Tehran readied talks. Markets firmed on hopes of diplomacy, though energy prices remained high.

Hedge funds are increasing shorts on European stocks amid heightened geopolitical tensions and energy risks. Positions concentrate on low-cost airlines and other rate-sensitive shares. The UK, with deep liquidity and exposure to utilities and housing, is seen as an easier trade.